Probabilistic solution and bounds for serial inventory systems with discounted and average costs

We consider the infinite horizon serial inventory system with both average cost and discounted cost criteria. The optimal echelon base‐stock levels are obtained in terms of only probability distributions of leadtime demands. This analysis yields a novel approach for developing bounds and heuristics for optimal inventory control polices. In addition to deriving the known bounds in literature, we develop several new upper bounds for both average cost and discounted cost models. Numerical studies show that the bounds and heuristic are very close to optimal.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

武器系统模糊寿命周期费用模型

武器系统的寿命周期费用建模较多采用参数法,而参数法中最常用的是最小二乘回归.考虑费用统计数据的模糊性,提出用模糊最小二乘回归来建立武器系统模糊寿命周期费用模型,并结合实例对武器系统寿命周期费用进行了分析.结果表明,这种方法能达到令人满意的拟合精度,具有实用价值.     

具有拟周期外力的非自治发展方程的时滞惯性流形与近似惯性流形

研究了一类具有拟周期外力的非自治发展方程,通过延伸相平面将非自治系统转化为自治系统,再证明相应的自治系统的时滞惯性流形的存在性,并在时滞惯性流形的基础上构造了非自治发展方程的近似惯性流形。     

BP神经网络的飞机机体研制费用估算

提出一种应用人工神经网络预测飞机机体研制费用的方法.该方法利用偏最小二乘法对飞机性能参数进行了主成分提取,用这些主成分作为BP网络的输入变量,建立了一种基于BP神经网络的飞机研制费用的估算模型,应用该模型对典型的飞机机体研制费用进行了预测.预测结果表明,该方法是有效的、可行的.     

可拓工程方法在效能-费用权衡中的应用

介绍可拓学及物元理论,提出用可拓工程方法对武器装备效能-费用进行权衡分析。建立了装备效费权衡分析的高阶复合物元模型,对初始效费方案进行了延拓,提出可拓特征集的概念。在此基础上,对效能-费用方案进行可拓聚类分析。     

装甲车辆动力传动系统整体性工程初探

全面考虑装甲车辆动力传动系统论证、研制、生产及使用等方面的因素,从整体、系统和全局的观点出发,论述了装甲车辆动力传动系统的整体式设计、一体化控制、性能综合评价和寿命周期费用分析.从而把装甲车辆动力传动系统的论证、研制、生产及使用看作一个整体性工程来考虑,克服了以往设计和使用中重点突出某一过程或部件,而忽略相互匹配和顾此失彼的问题,为在现有技术基础上进一步提高装甲车辆的机动性能,提供了一种新的研究思路.     

武器系统采购费与维修费权衡的依据分析

根据武器系统寿命周期费用的理论和方法,建立了系统的费用模型,依据数学分析和优化理论,在已知可用武器系统目标数的前提下,建立了费用优化条件,确定了采购费与维修费的比例限值,用以确定武器系统采购费和维修费的最优比例,从而对系统方案确定的权衡分析提供量化依据.     

The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model

This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in each arms‐producing country is small and when the world prices of the defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world prices will crowd‐out countries in the developing world from the market for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use ‘cheap and dirty’ weapon systems.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL

This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies that the defense industries of the US and Europe are ‘large’ while that of Israel is ‘small’. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel’s government expenditure, its defense industry’s profits and its net defense costs.     

Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.